Contrary to the reporting of the major networks and polling outlets, early voting and early voting ballot request data is showing that Republicans are both keeping pace with Democrats and exceeding them in several critical swing states.
In the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona, the numbers expected by Democrat pollsters and the Biden campaign are not materializing.
According to analysis by RedState citing NBC News, hardly a conservative organization, Republicans are out-performing Democrats in Michigan 41 percent to 39 percent.
President @realDonaldTrump takes the LEAD in early voting in MICHIGAN!!!
HUGE – VOTE ‼️ pic.twitter.com/UpxhBtYdgS
— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) October 17, 2020
In Ohio, a must win state for Democrats, the margin is even wider, with 46 percent of the returned ballots favoring the GOP and 41 percent of the votes cast going to the Democrats.
In Wisconsin, a state that in 2016 went to President Trump in an upset, the early vote is tallying 40 percent for Republicans and 38 percent Democrat.
Arizona is tied at 36 percent for both parties and in Texas, a state that Democrats are desperately trying to flip having spent millions of dollars to do so, the GOP and President Trump hold an 11 point lead, 51 percent to 40 percent.
Troubling to Democrats and the Biden campaign is this. Early voting and mail-in ballots were supposed to break heavily for Democrats. Conversely, Election Day voter turnout is expected to heavily favor Republicans and President Trump.
@maggieNYT There has never been a time in either of my two Campaigns when I felt we had a stronger chance of winning than we do right now. Early voting reports look far stronger than originally anticipated. Every RALLY is BOFFO. @MarkMeadows & team are doing a fantastic job….
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 19, 2020
Using voter registration numbers as a metric and Pennsylvania as an example, the Republican Party has picked up approximately 200,000 new voters. Trump won the perennially blue-leaning state by 44,292 votes in 2016. The JPMorgan polling firm suggests the President could win the state by more than 240,000 votes in the upcoming election.
Similar registration gains in the battleground states of Florida and North Carolina point to President Trump taking those states by larger margins than in 2016 as well.