Last Updated on November 19, 2020
In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump’s overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States’ bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory.
“Out of 3,000 counties in this country, there are 19 that have a perfect track record since 1980 of voting for the successful presidential candidate,” Cortes noted. “Donald Trump, on November 3, won 18 out of these 19 counties. Could these bellwether counties really have gotten it wrong all at the same time?”
The corporate media has largely been unable to explain Trump’s dominant performance in bellwether counties, offering up only vague references to “more racially diverse populations” in response to the counties’ sharp contrast with a purported Biden victory.
“Let’s look at these individual counties,” Cortes continued, and took a look at Vigo County, Indiana, which has only failed to vote for the projected winner once in over 100 years.
Cortes noted that in 2008, “Obama won this swing county in Indiana by 16 percent. This election, Donald Trump almost exactly flipped that even by the number. He won it by 15 percent.”
More on the statistical case against a Biden win — bellwether counties. Here’s the data…#ChalkTalk pic.twitter.com/zvfI3Nq8RI
— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) November 19, 2020
Valencia County, New Mexico, has held a perfect track record in presidential elections since 1952.
“It’s a majority Hispanic county, working-class place,” Cortes said. “In 2008, Obama won it by 8 percent. Again, like Vigo County, it flipped it almost exactly. In 2020, Donald trump won it by 10 percent.”
Cortes added that while the bellwether data does not conclusively prove Trump won, when viewed in its totality alongside “the growing statistical evidence that points to the utter improbability of the Biden win, what emerges is really just two scenarios: either Biden had literally a perfect political storm on November 3 – highly unlikely – or there was massive and systemic cheating. And I believe the evidence grows toward the latter.”
Cortes concluded by noting one other data point: Republicans won 27 out of 27 tossup house races in 2020, meaning a Biden win in the presidential election would stand out as such as a statistical anomaly that it would willingly suspend disbelief.